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[cheshire cat]

People got immune from Spanish Flu following two more years of deaths, the second and third waves. By advocating the unlimited introduction of crowds you are setting up the ideal breeding grounds for the second wave. Come to the ground, sing and chant with your mates and then go home to give Grandad Covid.

The reason the death rate is getting down to where it was in March is preciseley because we are taking such drastic social distancing measures. Without them, or if we choose to ignore them we will very quickly be back to where we were. Hence the current enhanced social distancing that Greater Manchester is currently lumbered with.

[JD]

I have been working since the start of the "Pandemic" indoors in a relatively crowded environment despite being at relatively high risk (no one where I work has caught it)
With our supporters outside and with intelligent controls throughout the stadium I really don't see an issue as long as fans behave sensibly.
With about 0.025% of the population with the virus I think the risks (certainly to healthy ppl - those high risk like me - overweight, getting on a bit, diabetic - do need protection) are extremely over exaggerated.
If fans don't want to take the risk then no one is forcing them!

[Hugh]

Look, the lockdown was supposed to be about stopping the nhs being overwhelmed (imposed, by the way, after infections had peaked), not taking away lots of our rights indefinitely. The NHS is not being overwhelmed, deaths are below a 5 year average for the time of year. Look at New Zealand, they imposed a lockdown for 4 c.v. cases (not even deaths), lots of the stuff going on is obviously nuts!I repeat, how long do you want this to go on for? Months? years? until there is no risk? It sounds like you want a year or two at least (by which time there will not be much professional sport, or jobs, left - and no money to pay for the nhs). You want to talk about Grandad? He died before Kidderminster away, having fought bravely in ww2.  And I haven't seen Grandma since lockdown. But we should also talk about the over 100,000 children who are predicted to starve to death worldwide this year alone because of government lockdowns, compared to the tiny number of children who die from this virus - 3 aged 5-14 in the UK last I heard - quite a contrast - and the millions who will die in the third world because of lockdowns, and the wars and extreme governments that will inevitably result - this could easily end up like the 1930's! We are being asked to sacrifice children's lives for the supposed protection of adults, not something I could ever feel comfortable with. Crashing the economy kills quite a lot of people as well. Scaring people away from getting vital treatment at hospital kills people. Non-covid lives matter, and there is  evidence that some of these lockdown measures have done more harm than good. Just to be clear - do you want non-attendance or, say, a 25% capacity at ML until there is a vaccine, or permanently otherwise? It also needs pointing out that things were quite a lot different in 1918 - the aftermath of a catastrophic war, medical advances since then etc. Professor Pantsdown's flawed computer model predicting over half a million was never going to be anywhere near the truth - and I understand he was involved in the foot and mouth debacle as well involving the unnecessary slaughter of millions of healthy livestock "just in case" - lucky he didn't recommend that for us humans. And Sweden's more limited measures was supposed to result in a catastrophically higher death rate - never happened! Less than Scotland and Finland (I understand), marginally higher than Denmark, substantially higher than Norway, which also just happens to have  a substantially higher population over 65.

Half a million deaths would have implied Spanish flu level deaths for over a year -  but there has been no sign of this anywhere in the world regardless of measures taken, so far as I am aware.  And infections were already falling by March 23rd which suggests that further measures were unnecessary.

And the point is, when South Shields played FC United on 14th of March, I understand there were 14 deaths from Covid-19 - and matches were not officially banned for some days after that. So if we get down to those levels by October, why shouldn't we have 3,000 in Moss Lane? Seriously, what is the difference, if it was alright then? And where in the world is there any sign of this famous second wave? (And I don't mean increased infection whilst hospitalizations continue to fall, or first waves coming late in the day). Answers on a postcard please...

And, haven't we had ideal breeding grounds in shops for months? All those people going in, touching things, standing in the middle of the aisle on their phone so that people inevitably pass close to them etc. etc.
 
Or I know, why don't we compromise? Reserve half the ground, say, for lockdown zealots (also known as bedwetters etc.) - say 962  places at 25% capacity, and have 3850 of us in the rest of the ground. We could even increase it to 2/3 of the ground for those particularly vulnerable to this virus if there is the demand for it (1283 places, and 2566 places for the rest of us). I dare say you people love segregation, and after all it would be just like Portsmouth which had special tickets for a singing section.

Oh, and another thing. Don't panic! Do not panic, mister Mainwaring. There's a bug on the loose. Fix bayonets. They don't like it up'em, they do not like it up'em! CHARGE!

Sorry, but you're the one who implied I'm killing Grandad - and me recently bereaved and all. Certainly I think we should protect care homes, the vulnerable, disabled etc. and it was a disgrace that infectious people out of hospital were sent into care homes, throwing care homes under the bus to "protect the NHS" ( aren't the NHS supposed to protect us?) - if anyone deserves criticism, perhaps it is the people behind this. And by the way, Grandma is in a care home, so I'm absolutely fuming about what has happened. These viruses, though, as I say, tend to become less virulent over time, and, as I say, I am quite happy to reserve a section of the ground for those who feel particularly vulnerable, in the same way as I would advocate specific times to shop for those who don't want to wear face nappies.

[Saughall Robin]

You are Bolsonaro and ICMFP! 😉

[distancetraveller]

At the end of the day people who wish to go to the grounds will go and those who are worried about COVID wont bother.

Personally I’m not sure what I would do just now.  What is a fact is, if everyone doesn’t accept the risks and congregate in big groups thinking “I am young and fit enough to survive Covid” so f**k it then the second wave will happen, particularly through the Winter months.

I’m not saying all young people act irresponsibly, far from it, neither am I saying all Older people take the necessary care, but generally to me, that seems the way of the world.

It’s a nasty virus folks. Take care..

[JD]

Look, the lockdown was supposed to be about stopping the nhs being overwhelmed (imposed, by the way, after infections had peaked), not taking away lots of our rights indefinitely. The NHS is not being overwhelmed, deaths are below a 5 year average for the time of year. Look at New Zealand, they imposed a lockdown for 4 c.v. cases (not even deaths), lots of the stuff going on is obviously nuts!I repeat, how long do you want this to go on for? Months? years? until there is no risk? It sounds like you want a year or two at least (by which time there will not be much professional sport, or jobs, left - and no money to pay for the nhs). You want to talk about Grandad? He died before Kidderminster away, having fought bravely in ww2.  And I haven't seen Grandma since lockdown. But we should also talk about the over 100,000 children who are predicted to starve to death worldwide this year alone because of government lockdowns, compared to the tiny number of children who die from this virus - 3 aged 5-14 in the UK last I heard - quite a contrast - and the millions who will die in the third world because of lockdowns, and the wars and extreme governments that will inevitably result - this could easily end up like the 1930's! We are being asked to sacrifice children's lives for the supposed protection of adults, not something I could ever feel comfortable with. Crashing the economy kills quite a lot of people as well. Scaring people away from getting vital treatment at hospital kills people. Non-covid lives matter, and there is  evidence that some of these lockdown measures have done more harm than good. Just to be clear - do you want non-attendance or, say, a 25% capacity at ML until there is a vaccine, or permanently otherwise? It also needs pointing out that things were quite a lot different in 1918 - the aftermath of a catastrophic war, medical advances since then etc. Professor Pantsdown's flawed computer model predicting over half a million was never going to be anywhere near the truth - and I understand he was involved in the foot and mouth debacle as well involving the unnecessary slaughter of millions of healthy livestock "just in case" - lucky he didn't recommend that for us humans. And Sweden's more limited measures was supposed to result in a catastrophically higher death rate - never happened! Less than Scotland and Finland (I understand), marginally higher than Denmark, substantially higher than Norway, which also just happens to have  a substantially higher population over 65.

Half a million deaths would have implied Spanish flu level deaths for over a year -  but there has been no sign of this anywhere in the world regardless of measures taken, so far as I am aware.  And infections were already falling by March 23rd which suggests that further measures were unnecessary.

And the point is, when South Shields played FC United on 14th of March, I understand there were 14 deaths from Covid-19 - and matches were not officially banned for some days after that. So if we get down to those levels by October, why shouldn't we have 3,000 in Moss Lane? Seriously, what is the difference, if it was alright then? And where in the world is there any sign of this famous second wave? (And I don't mean increased infection whilst hospitalizations continue to fall, or first waves coming late in the day). Answers on a postcard please...

And, haven't we had ideal breeding grounds in shops for months? All those people going in, touching things, standing in the middle of the aisle on their phone so that people inevitably pass close to them etc. etc.
 
Or I know, why don't we compromise? Reserve half the ground, say, for lockdown zealots (also known as bedwetters etc.) - say 962  places at 25% capacity, and have 3850 of us in the rest of the ground. We could even increase it to 2/3 of the ground for those particularly vulnerable to this virus if there is the demand for it (1283 places, and 2566 places for the rest of us). I dare say you people love segregation, and after all it would be just like Portsmouth which had special tickets for a singing section.

Oh, and another thing. Don't panic! Do not panic, mister Mainwaring. There's a bug on the loose. Fix bayonets. They don't like it up'em, they do not like it up'em! CHARGE!

Sorry, but you're the one who implied I'm killing Grandad - and me recently bereaved and all. Certainly I think we should protect care homes, the vulnerable, disabled etc. and it was a disgrace that infectious people out of hospital were sent into care homes, throwing care homes under the bus to "protect the NHS" ( aren't the NHS supposed to protect us?) - if anyone deserves criticism, perhaps it is the people behind this. And by the way, Grandma is in a care home, so I'm absolutely fuming about what has happened. These viruses, though, as I say, tend to become less virulent over time, and, as I say, I am quite happy to reserve a section of the ground for those who feel particularly vulnerable, in the same way as I would advocate specific times to shop for those who don't want to wear face nappies.

Yes

[Silent but Ledley]

To Hugh, interesting synopsis.  I do the books for a care home locally and let me tell you that care home residents are still being sent back WITHOUT a Covid test (or at least nothing mentioned on their discharged notes)  As recently as yesterday!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!   SBL

[Shiny Happy]

If this turns out to be true then I would speculate it could be to down cash flow reasons and trying to stop clubs going bust en masse by limiting them to spending only what they generate on match days.

Consider the scenario where the season starts as intended and clubs sell season tickets. Clubs then spend the season ticket revenue securing players, signing contracts etc to the point that the money is spent. The season starts but then has to stop due to a resurgent number of cases.

If we end up with a repeat of this season then clubs could be in the position of having to refund a large proportion of season tickets money. This could create major cash flow issues and could lead to administrations and the like.

Now this is just me speculating and like others have said could create a whole host of other virus related issues that a lack of season tickets generates such as reduced ability to track and trace.

One thing is for certain is that it must be giving The board a major headache.

[Hugh]

Bolsonaro? I just read that Brazil has a lower death rate than the UK!

Love it - political weather, a political free trade club and now a political virus!

Oh and, we are now officially in recession with an economic contraction of 20.4% in the last quarter (twenty point four per cent as the vidiprinter would have said), compared to an 8.6% contraction for Sweden, which has a broadly similar (or lower) death rate to the UK. So doing some rudimentary maths, that is over 150 billion pounds thrown away in one quarter alone (makes Gordon Brown's selling off of the gold reserves at record low prices look cheap). Much of this we will never get back, which could have been avoided without the March panic measures. How many lives are lost again for every billion pounds of cuts?

And over 5,000 was taken off the official covid-19 deaths today - down to about 41,000, which is still probably overstated, so say about 30,000 covid-19 deaths, and half of them (or more) would probably have died this year anyway (hence below five-year-average deaths for the time of year for several weeks in a row now), so maybe 15,000 excess deaths for this year (if deaths continue to fall - and we seem to be approaching herd immunity). And how many would it have been if we'd continued with the pre-lockdown plan, or just had a bare minimum of precautions? twice as many (30,000)? 10 times as many (150,0000)? Still a long way short of half a million. Actually there may be an answer to this. Apparently orthodox Jews in Israel are ignoring government advice about social distancing and getting away with it, due to the relevant politics, culture and religion in Israel. Watch that space... (And by the way, there is a deafening silence from the government on nutritional solutions to this, no, they'll listen to their mates in big pharma all the way). For extraordinary measures depriving us of so many liberties there should be extraordinary proof and clear and robust procedures (so not an overnight announcement on Twitter, for example). And as herd immunity approaches, and deaths continue to fall, with no sign of second waves, start with 25% capacity in October if you like (and we must do this as a minimum) and work up to full capacity through the season.
 I genuinely would be interested to know  what it would take for lockdown zealots to accept a crowd of 7000 at ML for, say, a playoff against Stockport - or is our real new capacity 1925 if no effective vaccine becomes available? And don't forget, if half the economy goes, the nhs is severely compromised and saves far less lives. The bedwetting really does need to stop before it's too late to save the country (not to mention millions of third world lives). Honestly, we just can't afford to go on throwing hundreds of billions of pounds away, whatever fears some people may have - get them counselling or something. Project fear (mark 3) will be the ruin of us.

And I should add, non-UK lives matter. It is probably only a slight exaggeration to say that there are plenty of people who would gloss over a million deaths in the third world if it was saving a thousand lives in Britain. And be under no illusion, that is what  we are facing, millions of people dying in the third world because of the various lockdowns around the world, the poorest worst affected as usual.

Of course there is miscounting. Lies, damn lies and covid statistics. And not least miscounting in England (probably Scotland too). Total deaths are usually fairly accurate though (and I repeat, total UK deaths are below the five year average for the time of year yet again). Frankly I'm not bothered about the politics of Bolsonaro or Sweden's government, just stopping this disaster getting any worse than it is already, and learning any lessons we can from around the world.

Nb, I edited this after reading Back Road's reply

Oh, and according to Professor Heneghan, there would be 15 covid deaths reported this Wednesday, and 11 on Tuesday under the new, non-dodgy system. Summer flu has been killing more people for some weeks now. It's an emergency, I'll get right on it. Keep looking for that second wave

[CRT Butty]

Bolsonaro? I just read that Brazil has a lower death rate than the UK!

Love it - political weather, a political free trade club and now a political virus!

Depends how each nation is counting. Bolsanaro is a clown, regardless.

[JD]

Bolsonaro? I just read that Brazil has a lower death rate than the UK!

Love it - political weather, a political free trade club and now a political virus!

Oh and, we are now officially in recession with an economic contraction of 20.4% in the last quarter (twenty point four per cent as the vidiprinter would have said), compared to an 8.6% contraction for Sweden, which has a broadly similar (or lower) death rate to the UK. So doing some rudimentary maths, that is over 150 billion pounds thrown away in one quarter alone (makes Gordon Brown's selling off of the gold reserves at record low prices look cheap). Much of this we will never get back, which could have been avoided without the March panic measures. How many lives are lost again for every billion pounds of cuts?

And over 5,000 was taken off the official covid-19 deaths today - down to about 41,000, which is still probably overstated, so say about 30,000 covid-19 deaths, and half of them (or more) would probably have died this year anyway (hence below five-year-average deaths for the time of year for several weeks in a row now), so maybe 15,000 excess deaths for this year (if deaths continue to fall - and we seem to be approaching herd immunity). And how many would it have been if we'd continued with the pre-lockdown plan, or just had a bare minimum of precautions? twice as many (30,000)? 10 times as many (150,0000)? Still a long way short of half a million. Actually there may be an answer to this. Apparently orthodox Jews in Israel are ignoring government advice about social distancing and getting away with it, due to the relevant politics, culture and religion in Israel. Watch that space... (And by the way, there is a deafening silence from the government on nutritional solutions to this, no, they'll listen to their mates in big pharma all the way). For extraordinary measures depriving us of so many liberties there should be extraordinary proof and clear and robust procedures (so not an overnight announcement on Twitter, for example). And as herd immunity approaches, and deaths continue to fall, with no sign of second waves, start with 25% capacity in October if you like (and we must do this as a minimum) and work up to full capacity through the season.
 I genuinely would be interested to know  what it would take for lockdown zealots to accept a crowd of 7000 at ML for, say, a playoff against Stockport - or is our real new capacity 1925 if no effective vaccine becomes available? And don't forget, if half the economy goes, the nhs is severely compromised and saves far less lives. The bedwetting really does need to stop before it's too late to save the country (not to mention millions of third world lives). Honestly, we just can't afford to go on throwing hundreds of billions of pounds away, whatever fears some people may have - get them counselling or something. Project fear (mark 3) will be the ruin of us.

And I should add, non-UK lives matter. It is probably only a slight exaggeration to say that there are plenty of people who would gloss over a million deaths in the third world if it was saving a thousand lives in Britain. And be under no illusion, that is what  we are facing, millions of people dying in the third world because of the various lockdowns around the world, the poorest worst affected as usual.

Of course there is miscounting. Lies, damn lies and covid statistics. And not least miscounting in England (probably Scotland too). Total deaths are usually fairly accurate though (and I repeat, total UK deaths are below the five year average for the time of year yet again). Frankly I'm not bothered about the politics of Bolsonaro or Sweden's government, just stopping this disaster getting any worse than it is already, and learning any lessons we can from around the world.

Nb, I edited this after reading Back Road's reply

Oh, and according to Professor Heneghan, there would be 15 covid deaths reported this Wednesday, and 11 on Tuesday under the new, non-dodgy system. Summer flu has been killing more people for some weeks now. It's an emergency, I'll get right on it. Keep looking for that second wave

Excellent post.

A couple of things:

You can safely say death and case rates in Scotland have been massaged one way or the other; you know when Sturgeon is lying - her lips are moving!
the fact that the death rate is currently below the seasonal average suggests that people who would have been dying now died between Feb and May. The virus only accelerated the deaths of some old and infirm, but the amount of accelerated deaths we will get in the next few months scares me as the amount missing essential treatments is scary and - if you account for the estimated deaths from suicide from the last recession was estimated at 10k and this recession will be significantly worse - I hate to think of the increased rate of suicides with SANE reporting an increase in 200% seeking help.
Sport is a great release for many people from the stresses of everyday life - as a participant or spectator - so it's value to people can be immense.

[RockyRobin]

Maybe we should leave the pub theories in the pub?

[Hugh]

Rocky, never mind about pub theories, just keep looking at the facts, the real bottom line.

The usual suspects said Sweden's more limited approach would be a disaster so I kept an eye on their death rate (from official sources) - and guess what happened?

When people started playing the economy over people's lives nonsense, I said that crashing the economy kills quite a lot of people - guess what's happening?

Open your flipping eyes man, this is serious stuff, that's why I'm bothered about this.

Oh what's the use, go on believing the lies if you want to. It's like someone said, it's no use trying to argue with some people.

****************************************************************************************************************************************************************

JD, I remember Darren (the Darren who likes to start the chants on the Golf Road sometimes) confided that watching this club was his release when he had been going through a really stressful time (no details as it's private stuff). What will people like him do now? The sum total of nothing in recent times, seemingly, and I really worry about the effects all this will have.

****************************************************************************************************************************************************************

Nb, the average daily deaths from this virus appear to be about 15 at the moment (not pub theory, fact - like I say, open your eyes man). reportedly several times lower than the combined deaths from flu and pneumonia at this time (do your own research if you like - I can believe it though). I repeat - "it's an emergency, I'll get right on it". (Name the film!)

Also worth noting: Reportedly (and it certainly rings true) the average age of deaths from covid-19 worldwide is 81, the average comorbidities are 2.5 - if you are young and healthy, there is a negligible chance of dying from it. (Again, do your own research - and preferably before spouting the pub theories crap, it's not really patriotism that's the last refuge of the scoundrel, it's ad hominems)

ps lies are actually pretty much what we're getting - newspapers talking about an increase in cases rather than an increase in positive test results (with false positives and negatives being an issue as only a tiny percentage of the population are  infected), and with a lot of positive test results relating to people who are asymptomatic anyway, and newspapers failing to add that an increase in positive test results just happened to coincide with an increase in testing and that there has been no corresponding increase in hospitalizations (all facts, do your research, man, or else don't sound off)- lies by omission, to create a better story I suppose... (and you can have that last bit about a better story for your "pub theories" if you want!). This might reasonably be described as lies by omission. And as for the people who came up with a system of recording deaths that never allowed for people recovering from covid-19 and then dying of something else - or did the big news about the official deaths being reduced by over 5,000 pass you by? As for the excess deaths, well we'll see how many more deaths there are this year than last year. Do you want to have a bet on it - you seem to believe the 46,000 figure, that large numbers are still dying, that many more will die from it this winter - very well, twenty quid on it - you want to believe that there will be 15,000 more deaths this year, or 50,000 or 60,000, put your money where your mouth is, and I'll pay you at the next match we're at (if we ever get to go to a match again) after the figures are released, or give it to someone to pass on to you.

On second thoughts, let's make it interesting. You're a bank manager or something (last I heard), and it's not a problem to me. Let's say 200 pounds. If you're up for it of course, and no pressure or anything. And we can iron out the rules and decide on a referee if you are.And  If I still have any money left by next year. Like I say, this government is bankrupting the country.

[RockyRobin]

You’ve no idea what my private theories are as I don’t share them online...take the hint

For what it is worth I've never been a Bank manager.

[MadFrankie]

Hugh, you might find http://www.altyfans.co.uk/index.php?board=1.0 useful