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[Mrs Warbouys]

Now 4th favourites

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/non-league/conference-north/winner

[JDN]

Hmmm, Telford big fav now

looks like bookie fancy us 4th like last season

[markecky]

Bookies know little of the Conference North in terms of squads etc.

They just look at last seasons finishing places and then wait for the money to come in and shorten odds to protect themselves, so the favourite is normally the club with the biggest fanbase.

[JDN]

But not actually the case if you compare fanbase to odds at the moment

[Jimmy]

Last season the favourites won it and second favourites went up via playoffs

[markecky]

Last season the favourites won it and second favourites went up via playoffs

Indeed, biggest fanbase and second biggest.

There is some science in in of course (like how they have Worcester at 80/1) but not a lot I wouldn't say.

I think Telford are favourites as people who know a bit as well as Telford fans have piled in, otherwise Stockport would be (even though on squad quality they shouldn't be).

[Timperley The Best]

Last season the favourites won it and second favourites went up via playoffs

Indeed, biggest fanbase and second biggest.

There is some science in in of course (like how they have Worcester at 80/1) but not a lot I wouldn't say.

I think Telford are favourites as people who know a bit as well as Telford fans have piled in, otherwise Stockport would be (even though on squad quality they shouldn't be).

ryan brooke played for county at cheadle

[Jimmy]

Last season the favourites won it and second favourites went up via playoffs

Indeed, biggest fanbase and second biggest.

There is some science in in of course (like how they have Worcester at 80/1) but not a lot I wouldn't say.

I think Telford are favourites as people who know a bit as well as Telford fans have piled in, otherwise Stockport would be (even though on squad quality they shouldn't be).

Fair point as north feriby have got long odds despite making quality signings but bookies get more right then wrong even at this level

[Jimmy Hill]

At those odds I think Guiseley with Hills at 14/1 are a cracking value bet if you back them e/w.

[Jimmy]

Normally your spot on but guiseley have lost good players and will not make playoffs and the high odds on them suggest the bookies do know enough about this league in my opinion

[Mrs Warbouys]

I think weight of money being placed on the others has been the reason guiseleys odds have lengthened, looks like a reasonable amount of money was placed on us in the week between the 1st and the 8th July. It would only take one fairly big bet on any of the sides near the top of that list to get the bookies jungle drums beating

[Jimmy]

In all cases it's to do with short odds to cover big bets that's why England have short odds in major tournaments when in reality they have little chance of winning

[Mrs Warbouys]

Up to 3rd favourites now, time to put your money on whilst still reasonably priced, the market on promotion (as opposed to champions) has opened now also, we are 5/1 for promotion, best price for champions 10/1

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/non-league/conference-north/winner