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+ www.altyfans.co.uk » General Category » Altrincham FC First Team
 Early play off betting

Author Topic: Early play off betting  (Read 3472 times)

Baldrick

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Early play off betting
« on: April 22, 2013, 03:30:33 PM »

As usual Victor Chandler is first to offer prices

Guiseley 7/4
Halifax 5/2
Altrincham 100/30
Brackley 100/30
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bigedd

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Re: Early play off betting
« Reply #1 on: April 22, 2013, 03:53:15 PM »

Just think i got 11/2 Alty to make playoffs last July. Magic. come on you mighty Robins.
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ForeverAlty

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Re: Early play off betting
« Reply #2 on: April 22, 2013, 04:12:57 PM »

 Is 100/30 good? I know nothing of betting except 1/2 wins double, 1/3 gets triple etc
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bighairedmike

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Re: Early play off betting
« Reply #3 on: April 22, 2013, 04:30:03 PM »

Is 100/30 good? I know nothing of betting except 1/2 wins double, 1/3 gets triple etc

It doesnt.

1/2 means you get half. 2/1 means you get double. Plus your original stake back obviously.

at 100/30 (or 10/3) we are 3 and a third to 1. So if you put 3 quid on you win £10 plus your original stake, so you get a £13 return.

If you put £1 on you would get £4.33 back.

Guiseley are favourites as they are effectively 1.75/1
Halifax are second favourites as they are 2.5/1
Us and Brackley are joint third favourites (the outsiders if you will) at 3.3/1
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Baldrick

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Re: Early play off betting
« Reply #4 on: April 22, 2013, 04:50:16 PM »

100/30 is a fair price at this stage. If Alty finish 5th the price will probably go out because it will mean there is no way of avoiding the favourites.
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Jimmy Hill

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Re: Early play off betting
« Reply #5 on: April 22, 2013, 05:39:18 PM »

I'm not really sure that anyone can split any of the teams in the play-offs with them all having roughly a 25% chance.

If all teams do have a roughly equal chance the value is to probably dutch Halifax and Alty. However, if you think that home advantage in the second leg counts for anything then the price is probably about right.

I wouldn't be rushing in to back anyone at those odds.
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WTF why do you need some sort of drug to have a good time at a party ffs

York Alty

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Re: Early play off betting
« Reply #6 on: April 22, 2013, 05:40:45 PM »

playoffs are about nerves and bottle as much as anything else.
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RocketDan

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Re: Early play off betting
« Reply #7 on: April 22, 2013, 06:53:10 PM »

It's a bit pot luck when it comes to playoffs - generally i'd always fancy the in form team as opposed to the team who finished the highest. I'm not sure is the stats back me up on this but you don't see the team who finishes second gain promotion as much as their points would suggest.

Despite being 2nd in the league, Guiseley have only won once in their last six games ,which makes the odds of 7/4 look a bit short. For me, Brackley look the best (100/30) - they've already beat Guiseley home and away this season, and have overcome the blip they had around february.

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Jimmy

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Re: Early play off betting
« Reply #8 on: April 22, 2013, 07:30:39 PM »

I fancy us I may look for better odds than 100/30 but there not to bad with are form
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chesteralty

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Re: Early play off betting
« Reply #9 on: April 22, 2013, 07:32:16 PM »

It's a bit pot luck when it comes to playoffs - generally i'd always fancy the in form team as opposed to the team who finished the highest. I'm not sure is the stats back me up on this but you don't see the team who finishes second gain promotion as much as their points would suggest.

Despite being 2nd in the league, Guiseley have only won once in their last six games ,which makes the odds of 7/4 look a bit short. For me, Brackley look the best (100/30) - they've already beat Guiseley home and away this season, and have overcome the blip they had around february.


Do we want to finish fifth instead of fourth then?
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Baldrick

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Re: Early play off betting
« Reply #10 on: April 22, 2013, 07:48:57 PM »

I don't think the form is that important. Guiseley secured their place in the play offs a few weeks ago so they could afford to rest players and not try too hard. They are the best of the four teams but the best team doesn't always win.
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taxi Phil

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Re: Early play off betting
« Reply #11 on: April 23, 2013, 12:02:16 AM »

I don't think the form is that important. Guiseley secured their place in the play offs a few weeks ago so they could afford to rest players and not try too hard. They are the best of the four teams but the best team doesn't always win.
Nuneaton won it from 5th last season.......and somebody else did it the first season of BSN  ;)
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Mick

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Re: Early play off betting
« Reply #12 on: April 23, 2013, 12:08:38 AM »

The bookies obviously fully understand it can be a bit of a lottery and hence that's why there is little real difference in the odds - the difference between the shortest odds and the longest odds is small as you would expect and of course nobody is ever odds-on in a fairly even 4 horse race
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Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there's a 90% probability you'll get it wrong.

distancetraveller

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Re: Early play off betting
« Reply #13 on: April 23, 2013, 09:17:06 AM »

The bookies obviously fully understand it can be a bit of a lottery and hence that's why there is little real difference in the odds - the difference between the shortest odds and the longest odds is small as you would expect and of course nobody is ever odds-on in a fairly even 4 horse race

Unless the horse is (The Machine) Sprinter Sacre  ;)
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 Early play off betting