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I've been crunching the numbers and here's how things stand:

If we do as well or better than Aldershot on Saturday, we will have secured a playoff spot. If Aldershot lose, we are in the playoffs. If we win, we are in the playoffs. If Aldershot draw and we draw, we are in the playoffs.

To finish in the top three we must win our final two games and ALL of the following must happen:
- Halifax drop at least two points (draw or lose one game)
- Solihull drop at least two points (draw or lose one game)
- Gateshead drop at least eight points (or seven if their goal difference takes a dive and/or ours improves). To drop eight points from five games they would need to lose three, lose two and draw one, lose one and draw three or draw four. To drop seven they would need to lose one and draw two.
- Bromley get no more than two draws from their last three games.

Failing all four of those things happening, we will still finish top five if we win our remaining games and at least TWO of them happen.

If we drop two points in our final games then top three is impossible but we could still finish in the top five if any TWO of these happen:
- Bromley lose every game
- Solihull drop at least four points (ie don't win either of their two games)
- Halifax drop three points (lose one or draw two)
- Gateshead drop at least ten points - or nine if goal difference swings in our favour.

If we drop three points in our two remaining games then a top five finish would require any TWO of the following:
- Halifax drop at least four points (draw two or lose 1 and draw one)
- Gateshead drop at least eleven points, or ten if goal difference swings in our favour.
- Solihull drop at least five points by getting no more than a draw from their final two games.

Simples

I expect they'll extend the season for everyone at Step 2 and below now, given the logistics - but how are they going to do that at Step 1 given the final is at Wembley?

Can't imagine you can just call up and amend your booking like you can for a hotel room!

We're just looking at Solihull and Halifax now really in my opinion.

Interestingly, Solihull and Halifax are both stronger away than they are at home - so perhaps not all is lost by slipping back to 6th - but 5th has got to be the goal.

Slipping back to 7th and heading up to Gateshead would be a disaster.