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UPDATED AFTER TONIGHT'S RESULT: FYLDE 2-0 GATESHEAD

It remains that we will secure a playoff spot if we do as well or better than Aldershot on Saturday. If Aldershot lose, we are in the playoffs. If we win, we are in the playoffs. If Aldershot draw and we draw, we are in the playoffs.

As well as Gateshead dropping points tonight, their goal difference has taken a knock but is still better than ours (+44 vs +42). Their defeat at Fylde means...

To finish in the top three we MUST win our final two games and ALL of the following must happen:

• Halifax drop at least two points (draw or lose one game)
• Solihull drop at least two points (draw or lose one game)
• Gateshead drop at least five points (or four if their goal difference takes a dive and/or ours improves).
• Bromley get no more than two draws from their last three games.

Failing all four of those things happening, we will still finish top five if we win our remaining games and at least TWO of them happen.

If we drop two points in our final games then top three is impossible but we could still finish in the top five if any TWO of these happen:

• Bromley lose every game
• Solihull drop at least four points (ie don't win either of their two games)
• Halifax drop three points (lose one or draw two)
• Gateshead drop at least seven points - or six if goal difference swings in our favour.

If we drop three points in our two remaining games then a top five finish would require any TWO of the following:

• Halifax drop at least four points (draw two or lose 1 and draw one)
• Gateshead drop at least eight points, or seven if goal difference swings in our favour.
• Solihull drop at least five points by getting no more than a draw from their final two games.

Simples

Gateshead failed to clear a corner which fell directly to the foot of Mitchell and rolled in from a yard or two out.

Wealdstone 3-2 Dorking now

Two quick goals for Dorking, early in the second half. Looks like they'll live to fight on.

Quote from: Wilmslow Alty on April 10, 2024, 11:12:04 PM

Quote from: MarpleAlty on April 10, 2024, 10:41:08 PM

If we win both of our remaining games - and Solihull don't win both of theirs (bearing in mind they have Bromley away on Saturday) - then we'll finish 5th.

That's assuming Gateshead don't collapse.

We'd also need ONE of Halifax, Gateshead or Bromley to drop sufficient points (as outlined above), otherwise we'd be 6th.

I'm working on the basis of Bromley and Gateshead finishing above us.

If we win both remaining games, Halifax would need to win all four of their remaining games, in eight days, to overtake us - which you'd get a great price at the bookies for.

For me, it's all about Solihull.

Definitely. Us winning both games and Solihull and Halifax dropping points is our most likely route to the top five, should we make it there - but there are other (less likely) avenues.

Win at Ebbs and we'll get 5th. Draw or lose, we'll be 6th and face an extra game.

That's what I think anyway.

A win at Ebbsfleet would guarantee top seven but top five isn't solely in our hands even if we win both remaining games. We need results elsewhere to go our way for that, as outlined above.

I've been crunching the numbers and here's how things stand:

If we do as well or better than Aldershot on Saturday, we will have secured a playoff spot. If Aldershot lose, we are in the playoffs. If we win, we are in the playoffs. If Aldershot draw and we draw, we are in the playoffs.

To finish in the top three we must win our final two games and ALL of the following must happen:
- Halifax drop at least two points (draw or lose one game)
- Solihull drop at least two points (draw or lose one game)
- Gateshead drop at least eight points (or seven if their goal difference takes a dive and/or ours improves). To drop eight points from five games they would need to lose three, lose two and draw one, lose one and draw three or draw four. To drop seven they would need to lose one and draw two.
- Bromley get no more than two draws from their last three games.

Failing all four of those things happening, we will still finish top five if we win our remaining games and at least TWO of them happen.

If we drop two points in our final games then top three is impossible but we could still finish in the top five if any TWO of these happen:
- Bromley lose every game
- Solihull drop at least four points (ie don't win either of their two games)
- Halifax drop three points (lose one or draw two)
- Gateshead drop at least ten points - or nine if goal difference swings in our favour.

If we drop three points in our two remaining games then a top five finish would require any TWO of the following:
- Halifax drop at least four points (draw two or lose 1 and draw one)
- Gateshead drop at least eleven points, or ten if goal difference swings in our favour.
- Solihull drop at least five points by getting no more than a draw from their final two games.

Simples

Solihull 2-0 Ebbsfleet now. Fairly weak deflected shot. Can't see Fleet coming back now - looks like all three points going to Solihull. Alty down to 5th.