Is it only me that finds myself looking at the table (our end) and running about a million sums and calculations through my head full of "what if" scenarios? Looking at the results last night and our packed and vital March fixture list - a game every Tuesday in the month for starters, what do you think we are looking at points wise?
I think we can beat Cambridge, Grays and definately Stafford at home and if we can scrape a few points on the road I think we could make it to 42-45 points. Is it enough?
No, your not the only one. My tv has page 4/4 of ceefax p326 stuck on it now whatever channel I switch to. I'm extrapolating like mad waiting for the great extrapolator (Flynny) to give us guidance.
Basically, with 4 teams going down the benchmark is 50 points. If you got that and went down you would be unlucky. That's the number of points GH has targeted for.
As such I look at the season in 3 parts
3 games v Burton, Cambridge and Weymouth
3 games v Morecambe (a), Oxford (h), Stevenage (a)
8 more games v GRAYS (actually sandwiched between Ox and Stvnge but anyway) STAFFORDD EXETER StAlbans G&N Dag & Red Tamworth ALDERSHOT.
Going into those 8 games I don't think you want to be chasing any more than 11 pts, as a team that hasn't won 2 on the bounce all season, to win 4 out of 8 would be a bit of an ask, as would W3 D2 L3. So we need 6 or 7 points from the next 6 games. Well being realistic, you would have to say that the away fixtures at More and Stev would yield nothing, the Oxford game maybe a hard fought point at home at best. That's not being defeatist but just as GH says, occassionaly you know there'll be a couple of games where you have to bite the bullet.
Basically I think to have a chance of staying up we will need 5 or 6 points from the next 3 games (3 of which MUST come against Cambridge or else). Otherwise it really will become tough, you don't want the dogfight to be absolutely sh*t or bust. We could beat Staffs, STAlb, Tam, Cambridge but would still need us to do one thing we have not done this season, beat a decent side at home or win away at someone reasonable. It would seem the best hope for the latter would be to catch Weymuff in some form of disarray (don't know quite what the situation is really).
I also fear Grays wioll fly now they jhave their injured players, most notably Stuart Thurgood back. A point at BUrton is possible altho maybe unlikely.
God knows, we're leaving a bit late anyway.