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General Category => Altrincham FC First Team => Topic started by: Mrs Warbouys on November 24, 2019, 10:08:22 AM
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Alfreton/Blyth
Atherton
Barrow
Chester
Chesterfield
Chorley
Curzon Ashton
Darlington
Farsley
FCUM
Fylde
Gloucester/BPA
Halesowen
Halifax
Harrogate
Hartlepool
Hednesford
Hereford/Kings Lynn
Kettering
Leamington
Matlock
Notts County
Solihull
Southport
Stockport
Telford
Wrexham
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The winners of the delayed midweek tie between Stourbridge & South Shields too.
Personally Atherton, Matlock or Halesowen for me. Obviously it’ll be Barrow or Halifax away.
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The FA competitions draw algorithm will surely generate a trip to Chester, Southport or Stockport County.
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Thanks, I didn't realise that the competition was still regional at this stage.
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This is the last round it is regionalised. Fully National at the last 32 stage onwards in Jan.
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The FA competitions draw algorithm will surely generate a trip to Chester, Southport or Stockport County.
Indeed. Next two rounds will probably take us to Southport and Chester, in that order. Hopefully Stockport will have been knocked out by then.
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Away.
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Still regionalised means Southport or Chester away is nailed on! Would be lovely to get Trafford or Atherton Colls though.
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Still regionalised means Southport or Chester away is nailed on! Would be lovely to get Trafford or Atherton Colls though.
Trafford aren't in it.
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Stinks of Barrow away
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The draw is live on talksport2 tomorrow from 12:45, link here
https://talksport.com/radioplayer/live/talksport2.html
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Anyone see a single attractive draw amongst that lot? Tedious cr*p or banana skins.
As we'll inevitably be away, then Matlock?
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Anyone see a single attractive draw amongst that lot? Tedious cr*p or banana skins.
As we'll inevitably be away, then Matlock?
I'd take that.
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FA Trophy draw numbers here, Hereford/Kings Lynn head south for this round
http://www.thefa.com/news/2019/nov/22/buildbase-fa-trophy-draw-on-talksport-221119
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Farsley Celtic. And you guessed it. Away.
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Farsley AWAY.
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Not a terrible draw in terms of the opposition. Eminently winnable. I wonder if anyone good at maths and with time on their hands could look into the odds of getting 6 consecutive away cup draws. Getting ridiculous now.
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Odds of 7 away draws on the trot is 1 in 128
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(A)ltrincham FC
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(A)ltrincham FC
High time we became Altrinc(H)am FC !
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Odds of 7 away draws on the trot is 1 in 128
Is it not still 50/50 because each draw is independent. Much like 7 tails in a row with a clip flip? Either way we are due a home draw in the cup after we win on Saturday :)
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Odds of 7 away draws on the trot is 1 in 128
Is it not still 50/50 because each draw is independent. Much like 7 tails in a row with a clip flip? Either way we are due a home draw in the cup after we win on Saturday :)
Maths not your strong point then,.. hehe.
You are right about deserving a home draw, but hey ho doesnt seem to stop us winning !
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Odds of the next one are 50:50. We are not “due” a home draw in that sense. The odds of 7 always then a home one are exactly the same as 8 away
We’ve already had 7 away draws:
Chester, Halesowen, Southport, York twice, Portsmouth and now farsley
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some one at the FA is taking the pi55
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some one at the FA is taking the pi55
Some say that, others say it’s a statistical anomaly.
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Odds of 7 away draws on the trot is 1 in 128
Is it not still 50/50 because each draw is independent. Much like 7 tails in a row with a clip flip? Either way we are due a home draw in the cup after we win on Saturday :)
It depends on how you ask the question.
Each draw is a unique event, has no memory and isn’t particularly arsed about history so as the ball is drawn from the bag (or a coin is tossed) the chance of getting home or away (or heads or tails) is the same. 50:50. Each time.
However you instinctively feel that tossing a coin 8 times and it coming up heads each time is quite rare.
Now feel free to check my maths* (never my strongest subject).
If you look at the problem as a single range of sequences (or ask what are the chances of not getting a single home tie over 8 draws), then the answer is 1:256*
Over 8 draws there are a total of 256* combinations:
AAAAAAAA
AHAHAHAH
HAAHAAHA
Etc
The chances of getting any of those 256* combinations is equal too - you have to have one of them.
But only one of those 256* combinations contains no home ties at all- the other 255* contain at least one home tie!
*my working out (for extra marks): combinations double with each draw. draw 1: 2 combinations, draw 2: 4 combinations, draw 3: 8 combinations etc.
** 8 draws: 5 FAC, 2 FAT, 1 CSC
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1 in 256 is correct. There is a 1 in 2 chance of each draw being away and so the chances of 8 consecutive draws being away is 1 in 2^8=256
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If we’re including CSC draws, it’s only fair to point out that if we beat Stalybridge, we have been drawn at home to Vauxhall Motors.
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If we’re including CSC draws, it’s only fair to point out that if we beat Stalybridge, we have been drawn at home to Vauxhall Motors.
Why let facts get in the way of a good story ::)
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1 in 256 is correct. There is a 1 in 2 chance of each draw being away and so the chances of 8 consecutive draws being away is 1 in 2^8=256
True. Probability of 8 consecutive homes or 8 consecutive aways is 1:256.......about as simple as probability gets.
Becomes more complicated when calculating combinations of H&A because there are more ways of achieving the same result (as Alty TV points out)
Netherless and maths aside, so many draws away must be rare
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1 in 256 is correct. There is a 1 in 2 chance of each draw being away and so the chances of 8 consecutive draws being away is 1 in 2^8=256
True. Probability of 8 consecutive homes or 8 consecutive aways is 1:256.......about as simple as probability gets.
Becomes more complicated when calculating combinations of H&A because there are more ways of achieving the same result (as Alty TV points out)
Netherless and maths aside, so many draws away must be rare
Not least because to get such a sequence you have to keep winning away from home!
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mind you this is Alty we are talking about,we like to do things the hard way.
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I have no worries about this team being drawn away. I don't think it makes a blind bit of difference to them where they play. The only disappointment is that so few fans have been able to share in the cup runs so far.