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General Category => Altrincham FC First Team => Topic started by: Wilmslow Alty on March 31, 2024, 02:26:40 PM

Title: The run in
Post by: Wilmslow Alty on March 31, 2024, 02:26:40 PM
Looking at the remaining fixtures there are now, realistically, eight teams vying for the six playoff spots. A victory for us tomorrow could put Oldham out of the picture so it's almost seven (almost!)

Top three is all but settled - it would take a collapse for Bromley and Barnet not to comfortably take the prime playoff spots. Top five, though, is in reach for Alty. With our goal difference, 77 points should be enough for that, possibly 76, which means dropping no more than two points and certainly no more than three if we want home advantage in the first playoff game.

Top seven is starting to look comfortable (whisper it quietly though). 73 points should see us finish in the playoff places, which means dropping no more than six points in our last four games.

Some key six-pointers to look out for over these last three weeks:

1/4 Alty V Oldham (not as crucial as it might seem with Oldham almost out of the picture but a win for Alty would narrow the playoff field and see Oldham cut adrift)

10/4 Halifax V Oldham (an Oldham victory or a draw would be most helpful to us here)

13/4 Barnet V Halifax (With Barnet's top three finish almost assured, a Barnet win would be most helpful here as Halifax are the bigger threat to us but a draw wouldn't hurt either)

13/4 Bromley V Solihull (Again, it's Bromley we'd want to root for as they're too far ahead to catch. A draw would be helpful to us too though)

16/4 Chesterfield V Gateshead (Chesterfield seem determined to end their season with a whimper but they could help us out by taking all three points against Gateshead. Failing that, at least a draw, eigh, Spireites?)
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: nimeta on March 31, 2024, 06:04:08 PM
If we win tomorrow, it would be shocking for us not to make the play-offs given that our remaining 3 games are against sides all in the bottom 6.

Oldham need to come out fighting. They have had a very poor run and this is last chance saloon for them. I have bad memories of the FA Cup game earlier this season which we marginally deserved to win but they came away with a 1-0 victory. Could be a tense afternoon for both sets of fans.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Timperley The Best on April 01, 2024, 05:55:39 PM
Can't be far off being mathematically sure of a play off place if we beat Dorking
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Alty Dave on April 02, 2024, 09:05:15 AM
Can't be far off being mathematically sure of a play off place if we beat Dorking
Agreed and if others drop points as well that will help.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: MarpleAlty on April 02, 2024, 11:26:55 AM
Much like last season's Trophy run (which we obviously conspired to stuff up!), we have a fantastic opportunity here.

Of ALL of the playoff teams, we're the only team that doesn't have a midweek fixture left - with three having an FA Trophy game to contend with.

Even Gateshead, who look well placed on paper to pip Bromley to third, are going to have to due a Tuesday-Thursday-Saturday week.

Halifax in particular look absolutely screwed with four home fixtures left if they can't get their pitch right.

Regardless of which order everyone finishes in, at least a couple of these teams are going to be burned out.

On the other hand, injuries and suspensions to some of our key players at certain points mean they're probably going to be fresher than most - Regan Linney especially.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Alty Bri on April 02, 2024, 11:41:56 AM
I'd say that we're likely to finish 5th. That will mean one bumper crowd in the play offs and then (fingers crossed) a trip to Barnet in the semis. Can we actually finish with a crowd average approaching 2500?

Look whatever the outcome, we have done remarkably well this season and massively exceeded expectations. I'm pretty sure that we are all exceptionally proud of this fabulous team and just enjoying the ride at the moment. Love everything about our club - long may it continue.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Steve from Sale on April 02, 2024, 11:47:44 AM
I think 4th place is more than feasible, where we are now, other teams are more likely to drop points than we are at present. We just need to win our remaining games and then let other teams worry about catching us. Rather have maximum points on the board and let other teams worry about us. The ball is now firmly in our court.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Alty Bri on April 02, 2024, 11:57:01 AM
I think Gateshead are a tiny bit ahead of us in terms of quality at the moment Steve, but 4th would give us a better chance.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: MarpleAlty on April 02, 2024, 12:06:39 PM
I'd say that we're likely to finish 5th. That will mean one bumper crowd in the play offs and then (fingers crossed) a trip to Barnet in the semis. Can we actually finish with a crowd average approaching 2500?

Look whatever the outcome, we have done remarkably well this season and massively exceeded expectations. I'm pretty sure that we are all exceptionally proud of this fabulous team and just enjoying the ride at the moment. Love everything about our club - long may it continue.

It certainly looks extremely likely we'll finish 5th, given that Bromley and Gateshead should accumulate the points to get over the line ahead of us.

The dream scenario would be smashing a burnt-out Halifax in front of a bumper crowd in the eliminator, to exercise the ghosts of seasons past.

With regard to Barnet, that will have to be our 'York' - or 'Boston' for that matter - they'll be favourites, but sitting out for a bit might not suit them - who knows.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Saughall Robin on April 02, 2024, 01:13:37 PM
Yes. Thumping Halifax would be very satisfying. If we could overcome Barnet in the semi, how great would it be to beat Gateshead in the final?

PS. Yes, I know I'm getting ahead of myself but after being a glass half empty kind of bloke all my life, surely I'm allowed a bit of leeway?
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Wilmslow Alty on April 02, 2024, 03:48:41 PM
I reckon after yesterday's results, one more point will see us secure a playoff slot or six more would make it top five. Nine points could even see us squeak third.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: rorysgrandad on April 02, 2024, 04:38:45 PM
I reckon after yesterday's results, one more point will see us secure a playoff slot or six more would make it top five. Nine points could even see us squeak third.
Top five is realistic as is 3 wins. Top three relying on Bromley experiencing more misadventures.

 
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Steve from Sale on April 02, 2024, 04:49:13 PM
Some of the currently competing teams are playing each other and those outside the playoffs. We seem to now have the easiest run=in, but nothing is certain of course.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Saughall Robin on April 02, 2024, 04:52:47 PM
Some of the currently competing teams are playing each other and those outside the playoffs. We seem to now have the easiest run=in, but nothing is certain of course.

That could be the usual me talking! 😉 😂😂
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Saughall Robin on April 02, 2024, 08:39:02 PM
Halifax 0 York 0.  HT
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Saughall Robin on April 02, 2024, 09:30:40 PM
Halifax 0 York 0.  HT

York 1 up
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Saughall Robin on April 02, 2024, 09:41:00 PM
Halifax 0 York 0.  HT

York 1 up

Halifax equaliser in the 93rd minute 😕

Full Time 1-1. Halifax now 7 points behind us with only two games in hand.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: MarpleAlty on April 03, 2024, 07:43:44 PM
Call me superstitious, however I fear the last time we looked ahead like this was just before the Aldershot game.

We all know Dorking and Ebbsfleet are more than capable of turning us over if we're not switched on.

Given the finish line is in sight, I trust the lads to retain their focus - one game at a time!
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Saughall Robin on April 03, 2024, 08:34:35 PM
Talking of run ins, I see Emley have won the NECL and are back up to level 4 again.
Most interesting is that one of the scorers in their championship winning game was a certain James Walshaw! He's got to be over 40 now surely? 🤔
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Amsterdam Alty on April 03, 2024, 09:27:34 PM
Talking of run ins, I see Emley have won the NECL and are back up to level 4 again.
Most interesting is that one of the scorers in their championship winning game was a certain James Walshaw! He's got to be over 40 now surely? 🤔
Good spot, he's aparently 40 as of the 12th Feb this year.

He's still not the oldest ex player with Kevin Ellison scoring a brace over the weekend. Nicky Clee is also still knocking them in somehow
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: wayno on April 03, 2024, 09:38:53 PM
Up the reds  :)
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: rorysgrandad on April 03, 2024, 10:57:19 PM
Up the reds  :)
This.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Saughall Robin on April 07, 2024, 02:20:47 PM
I think we're all getting a bit more confident of reaching the play offs, but here's the big question, can we secure a home game in the qualifiers? - ie finish fourth or fifth? I'm not sure. What do you lot think?
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Timperley The Best on April 07, 2024, 02:50:02 PM
I think we're all getting a bit more confident of reaching the play offs, but here's the big question, can we secure a home game in the qualifiers? - ie finish fourth or fifth? I'm not sure. What do you lot think?

I would like to think 4th or 5th are achievable . Don't want Halifax and definitely not at the Shay with their pitch .If Aldershot lose at Gateshead on Tuesday we will finish in the top 7 .Think it might mean having to beat  Oxford at home to get a home tie .
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Saughall Robin on April 07, 2024, 03:08:53 PM
My feeling is that we need two more wins to have a decent chance of 5th.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Alty Bri on April 07, 2024, 03:25:40 PM
4 points will get us 5th and 3 points will get us 6th. No real chance of 4th.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Saughall Robin on April 07, 2024, 04:02:00 PM
4 points will get us 5th and 3 points will get us 6th. No real chance of 4th.
I sincerely hope you're right, Bri, but I'm not sure personally.
Another pertinent question is, given Osborne is on nine bookings, what will we do in midfield if he gets a tenth?
And speaking of bookings, I don't suppose they reset to zero at the end of the main season? It would be nice if they did.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Bath Alty on April 07, 2024, 04:05:13 PM
4 points will get us 5th and 3 points will get us 6th. No real chance of 4th.
I sincerely hope you're right, Bri, but I'm not sure personally.
Another pertinent question is, given Osborne is on nine bookings, what will we do in midfield if he gets a tenth?
And speaking of bookings, I don't suppose they reset to zero at the end of the main season? It would be nice if they did.

Premier league you have to reach 10 in 32 matches to get a ban. Is there a similar cut off for us?
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: MarpleAlty on April 08, 2024, 08:58:24 AM
I actually don't think the Gateshead v Aldershot game will have much bearing on us - Gateshead will finish above us, Aldershot below us.

Solihull is the big danger at the moment - two winnable home games left, which would push them to 76 - and thus meaning another slip up from us is costly.

Ebbsfleet getting something at their place tomorrow night will be of huge assistance, in two ways - hurting Solihull, and getting themselves safe before Saturday.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: rorysgrandad on April 08, 2024, 09:24:48 AM
I see Gateshead beating Aldershot as critical to us simply because it rubber stamps our participation in the play offs. Our last two matches determine our position in the play off pecking order.
 
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: MarpleAlty on April 08, 2024, 11:06:49 AM
I see Gateshead beating Aldershot as critical to us simply because it rubber stamps our participation in the play offs. Our last two matches determine our position in the play off pecking order.

Surely we've got to want to push for a home game? - whether we like it or not, other results elsewhere will play a part in that - starting tomorrow at Solihull.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Alty Dave on April 08, 2024, 11:21:12 AM
I see Gateshead beating Aldershot as critical to us simply because it rubber stamps our participation in the play offs. Our last two matches determine our position in the play off pecking order.

Surely we've got to want to push for a home game? - whether we like it or not, other results elsewhere will play a part in that - starting tomorrow at Solihull.
I agree, we should be looking for 2 wins from our next two games. Home tie would be fantastic.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Saughall Robin on April 08, 2024, 12:41:22 PM
Like I've said before, I think we're going to need two wins and even then it might not be sufficient to get us up to fifth. I think the likeliest ones to fall back are those with games in hand needing to be played in the next week and a half.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: rorysgrandad on April 08, 2024, 12:42:01 PM
I see Gateshead beating Aldershot as critical to us simply because it rubber stamps our participation in the play offs. Our last two matches determine our position in the play off pecking order.

Surely we've got to want to push for a home game? - whether we like it or not, other results elsewhere will play a part in that - starting tomorrow at Solihull.
I fully concur MA. We aim for two wins to end our campaign. Any help by our competitors slipping up greatly appreciated. COYR. We can get another sell out after the Oxford game. I want another wrist band! 😁
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: MarpleAlty on April 08, 2024, 01:28:21 PM
We're just looking at Solihull and Halifax now really in my opinion.

Interestingly, Solihull and Halifax are both stronger away than they are at home - so perhaps not all is lost by slipping back to 6th - but 5th has got to be the goal.

Slipping back to 7th and heading up to Gateshead would be a disaster.

Title: Re: The run in
Post by: rorysgrandad on April 08, 2024, 02:05:43 PM
We're just looking at Solihull and Halifax now really in my opinion.

Interestingly, Solihull and Halifax are both stronger away than they are at home - so perhaps not all is lost by slipping back to 6th - but 5th has got to be the goal.

Slipping back to 7th and heading up to Gateshead would be a disaster.
The only solice I can muster for ending up with Gateshead away is that they have five games to play by a week on Saturday whilst we have just the two. I'd rather avoid them but they could be exhausted. We did win there this season too but I wouldn't be too bullish about repeating the dose.We all know Alty. Convincing win at Ebbsfleet then Oxford grab a last minute winner at the JDS. Lots of twists and turns to come I'm sure.🤞🤞
 
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: MarpleAlty on April 09, 2024, 09:18:20 AM
The bookies seem fairly certain of our Top 7 status - currently 1/50.

Goal has got to be Top 5 now!
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Alty Bri on April 09, 2024, 09:47:02 AM
I think any kind of result at Ebbs would give us a good shot at 5th.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Saughall Robin on April 09, 2024, 10:01:01 AM
I think any kind of result at Ebbs would give us a good shot at 5th.

I think, sadly, to get to 5th we're going to need all six points available. Even that might not be enough unless there are implosions from those around us with games still to squeeze in (ie Gateshead and Halifax)

PS. Sincerely hope I'm wrong..

Also, whilst fifth would be fabulous, I'd certainly have ripped your hand off for seventh at the start of the season. I actually didn't think we'd reach more than midtable. Just shows you what I know! 😉
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Mrs Warbouys on April 09, 2024, 10:34:28 AM
Be some turn around if Halifax v Oldham goes ahead tomorrow, it’s as bad there as here weather wise
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: rorysgrandad on April 09, 2024, 11:07:22 AM
Be some turn around if Halifax v Oldham goes ahead tomorrow, it’s as bad there as here weather wise
I'm not sure how Halifax are going to complete their home games TBH.
The rugby fixture played there this week in driving rain and large puddles appeared to remove what was left of the top surface. Due to play at the shay tomorrow, Saturday and Tuesday. They've ended up with the headache many thought we'd have back in February. Be interesting how it pans out for them.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: MarpleAlty on April 09, 2024, 11:44:54 AM
The picture will become a bit clearer after tonight's Solihull game - if they drop points we just need to match their final two results, and they're going to Bromley on Saturday.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Mrs Warbouys on April 09, 2024, 02:16:15 PM
Gateshead v Aldershot is in doubt this evening. And the river Tyne has just burst its banks
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: MarpleAlty on April 09, 2024, 02:57:56 PM
Halifax v Oldham off tomorrow night - currently exploring alternative options, which at this stage has to involve an alternative location for them.

Gatehead game looking very doubtful - the only remaining option they have is next Thursday night, just before the regular season ends...
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Mrs Warbouys on April 09, 2024, 07:30:57 PM
Gateshead v Aldershot - OFF
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: MarpleAlty on April 09, 2024, 08:06:01 PM
Gateshead v Aldershot - OFF

Wow!

The only option they have is doing Tuesday Thursday Saturday next week instead - with absolutely zero wiggle room for any further postponements.

Not the most ideal playoff preparation!
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Wilmslow Alty on April 09, 2024, 08:15:40 PM
The bookies seem fairly certain of our Top 7 status - currently 1/50.
Feeling pretty good about the £20 I stuck on at 10/1  8)
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Wilmslow Alty on April 09, 2024, 08:23:43 PM
Currently 1-0 to Solihull but a very open game. Could easily see Ebbsfleet getting at least one back. Solihull have missed so many chances in the first half so far that it's almost written that they'll rue them in the second half.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Wilmslow Alty on April 09, 2024, 09:24:15 PM
Solihull 2-0 Ebbsfleet now. Fairly weak deflected shot. Can't see Fleet coming back now - looks like all three points going to Solihull. Alty down to 5th.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: GolfRoader on April 09, 2024, 09:34:25 PM
Bromley equaliser not ideal for us
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: MarpleAlty on April 09, 2024, 09:53:07 PM
Solihull 2-0 Ebbsfleet now. Fairly weak deflected shot. Can't see Fleet coming back now - looks like all three points going to Solihull. Alty down to 5th.

It's now crystal clear that we need to win both of our remaining games to stand a chance of 5th - I did fancy Ebbsfleet to give Solihull more of a game.

Back into our hands if Bromley hold them on Saturday and hopefully Ebbsfleet are done in from tonight.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: rorysgrandad on April 09, 2024, 09:54:45 PM
The wait goes on to confirm a play off spot. Onto Ebbsfleet on Saturday. COYR.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Wilmslow Alty on April 09, 2024, 09:59:28 PM
Top three was pretty much already out of sight. As it stands after tonight, we are one win from securing a play off spot and top five is still a possibility. On the basis of points left available 6th or 7th seems our most likely finishing spot but the huge unknown factor is what the fixture congestion is going to mean for Halifax and Gateshead.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: MarpleAlty on April 09, 2024, 10:53:35 PM
I'm going to stay positive about 5th for now!

The game on Saturday is very winnable given our additional rest, and Solihull have every chance of dropping points at Bromley.

If we win both remaining games, Halifax are unlikely to catch us either.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Saughall Robin on April 09, 2024, 11:44:17 PM
I'm going to stay positive about 5th for now!

The game on Saturday is very winnable given our additional rest, and Solihull have every chance of dropping points at Bromley.

If we win both remaining games, Halifax are unlikely to catch us either.

Loving your confidence mate - just wish I shared it! 😉
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Alty Bri on April 10, 2024, 08:40:59 AM
We beat Ebbsfleet 6-1 earlier in the season! Let's go into this game with a bit of confidence. It's a game we can certainly win if we play anywhere near the way we can. I've got a feeling they'll be more worried about us.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Steve from Sale on April 10, 2024, 12:09:45 PM
If we play to what we are capable of in both games, max 6 points definitely doable. Let other teams worry about us, we are already in a much stronger position and we should go into these games with confidence - and the playoffs.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: rorysgrandad on April 10, 2024, 12:43:31 PM
3 points gets rid of Aldershot out of the equation and gives us guaranteed top 7 finish. It takes some unwanted pressure off the Oxford game. We can just concentrate on getting the job done in our final league game.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: MarpleAlty on April 10, 2024, 01:16:10 PM
At the end of the day it's a very similar assignment to Kidderminster.

We ended up coming through that one comfortably in the end, so we should hold no fears if we go about our normal game.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: rorysgrandad on April 10, 2024, 06:27:31 PM
Gateshead game at Fylde in doubt tomorrow night. They aren't going to be playing consecutive nights next week. You can see where this is going. Gateshead and Halifax will be given preferential treatment.


 
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Timperley The Best on April 10, 2024, 07:05:56 PM
Gateshead game at Fylde in doubt tomorrow night. They aren't going to be playing consecutive nights next week. You can see where this is going. Gateshead and Halifax will be given preferential treatment.

Can't see the season being extended meaning they  will have to play on consecutive nights
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Alty Bri on April 10, 2024, 07:18:36 PM
I can't see any way how the season can be extended to be honest, but at the same time the dreadful weather forecast for the next week or so is going to cause havoc. No idea how this is resolved unless games are played behind closed doors at neutral venues.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Saughall Robin on April 10, 2024, 08:49:56 PM
Can't we get The Pools Panel to decide the outcomes? 😉

PS. If I'm elected, Gateshead and Halifax will lose all their games 1-4. 😂
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Wilmslow Alty on April 10, 2024, 09:24:44 PM
I've been crunching the numbers and here's how things stand:

If we do as well or better than Aldershot on Saturday, we will have secured a playoff spot. If Aldershot lose, we are in the playoffs. If we win, we are in the playoffs. If Aldershot draw and we draw, we are in the playoffs.

To finish in the top three we must win our final two games and ALL of the following must happen:
- Halifax drop at least two points (draw or lose one game)
- Solihull drop at least two points (draw or lose one game)
- Gateshead drop at least eight points (or seven if their goal difference takes a dive and/or ours improves). To drop eight points from five games they would need to lose three, lose two and draw one, lose one and draw three or draw four. To drop seven they would need to lose one and draw two.
- Bromley get no more than two draws from their last three games.

Failing all four of those things happening, we will still finish top five if we win our remaining games and at least TWO of them happen.

If we drop two points in our final games then top three is impossible but we could still finish in the top five if any TWO of these happen:
- Bromley lose every game
- Solihull drop at least four points (ie don't win either of their two games)
- Halifax drop three points (lose one or draw two)
- Gateshead drop at least ten points - or nine if goal difference swings in our favour.

If we drop three points in our two remaining games then a top five finish would require any TWO of the following:
- Halifax drop at least four points (draw two or lose 1 and draw one)
- Gateshead drop at least eleven points, or ten if goal difference swings in our favour.
- Solihull drop at least five points by getting no more than a draw from their final two games.

Simples 8)
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: rorysgrandad on April 10, 2024, 09:36:49 PM
I've been crunching the numbers and here's how things stand:

If we do as well or better than Aldershot on Saturday, we will have secured a playoff spot. If Aldershot lose, we are in the playoffs. If we win, we are in the playoffs. If Aldershot draw and we draw, we are in the playoffs.

To finish in the top three we must win our final two games and ALL of the following must happen:
- Halifax drop at least two points (draw or lose one game)
- Solihull drop at least two points (draw or lose one game)
- Gateshead drop at least eight points (or seven if their goal difference takes a dive and/or ours improves). To drop eight points from five games they would need to lose three, lose two and draw one, lose one and draw three or draw four. To drop seven they would need to lose one and draw two.
- Bromley get no more than two draws from their last three games.

Failing all four of those things happening, we will still finish top five if we win our remaining games and at least TWO of them happen.

If we drop two points in our final games then top three is impossible but we could still finish in the top five if any TWO of these happen:
- Bromley lose every game
- Solihull drop at least four points (ie don't win either of their two games)
- Halifax drop three points (lose one or draw two)
- Gateshead drop at least ten points - or nine if goal difference swings in our favour.

If we drop three points in our two remaining games then a top five finish would require any TWO of the following:
- Halifax drop at least four points (draw two or lose 1 and draw one)
- Gateshead drop at least eleven points, or ten if goal difference swings in our favour.
- Solihull drop at least five points by getting no more than a draw from their final two games.

Simples 8)
Brilliant WA. Have you been reading my mind? Parky could use this for his team talk. The top three plan seemed promising until Gateshead. Top five isn't too far fetched TBH. We all live in hope. Thanks for your efforts. Hope you've gone for a lie down.😁
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Alty Bri on April 10, 2024, 10:25:31 PM
Win at Ebbs and we'll get 5th. Draw or lose, we'll be 6th and face an extra game.

That's what I think anyway.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Saughall Robin on April 10, 2024, 10:38:46 PM
Win at Ebbs and we'll get 5th. Draw or lose, we'll be 6th and face an extra game.

That's what I think anyway.

We won't have an extra game, we just won't have a home match in the qualifier round.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: MarpleAlty on April 10, 2024, 10:41:08 PM
If we win both of our remaining games - and Solihull don't win both of theirs (bearing in mind they have Bromley away on Saturday) - then we'll finish 5th.

That's assuming Gateshead don't collapse.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Wilmslow Alty on April 10, 2024, 11:12:04 PM
If we win both of our remaining games - and Solihull don't win both of theirs (bearing in mind they have Bromley away on Saturday) - then we'll finish 5th.

That's assuming Gateshead don't collapse.

We'd also need ONE of Halifax, Gateshead or Bromley to drop sufficient points (as outlined above), otherwise we'd be 6th.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Wilmslow Alty on April 10, 2024, 11:16:15 PM
Win at Ebbs and we'll get 5th. Draw or lose, we'll be 6th and face an extra game.

That's what I think anyway.
A win at Ebbsfleet would guarantee top seven but top five isn't solely in our hands even if we win both remaining games. We need results elsewhere to go our way for that, as outlined above.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Mrs Warbouys on April 11, 2024, 05:37:16 AM
With this weeks wipeout it’s impossible to call yet. And we might lose Fylde v Gateshead this evening yet with a pitch inspection scheduled for 11am
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: MarpleAlty on April 11, 2024, 12:47:46 PM
If we win both of our remaining games - and Solihull don't win both of theirs (bearing in mind they have Bromley away on Saturday) - then we'll finish 5th.

That's assuming Gateshead don't collapse.

We'd also need ONE of Halifax, Gateshead or Bromley to drop sufficient points (as outlined above), otherwise we'd be 6th.

I'm working on the basis of Bromley and Gateshead finishing above us.

If we win both remaining games, Halifax would need to win all four of their remaining games, in eight days, to overtake us - which you'd get a great price at the bookies for.

For me, it's all about Solihull.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: MarpleAlty on April 11, 2024, 12:53:15 PM
With this weeks wipeout it’s impossible to call yet. And we might lose Fylde v Gateshead this evening yet with a pitch inspection scheduled for 11am

Fylde game on, didn't look too doubtful given the dry and mild forecast today.

I guess we probably want all games to go ahead now - the last thing we'd want is the league stepping in and making an executive decision that goes against us.

Solihull at home and Gateshead / Halifax hopefully out on their feet beyond the 20th - one can dream...
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Wilmslow Alty on April 11, 2024, 01:15:52 PM
If we win both of our remaining games - and Solihull don't win both of theirs (bearing in mind they have Bromley away on Saturday) - then we'll finish 5th.

That's assuming Gateshead don't collapse.

We'd also need ONE of Halifax, Gateshead or Bromley to drop sufficient points (as outlined above), otherwise we'd be 6th.

I'm working on the basis of Bromley and Gateshead finishing above us.

If we win both remaining games, Halifax would need to win all four of their remaining games, in eight days, to overtake us - which you'd get a great price at the bookies for.

For me, it's all about Solihull.
Definitely. Us winning both games and Solihull and Halifax dropping points is our most likely route to the top five, should we make it there - but there are other (less likely) avenues.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Saughall Robin on April 11, 2024, 01:33:56 PM
As I said above, four points is very unlikely to get us to fifth. (even six would leave us depending on others slipping - which surely must be on the cards?)
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: rorysgrandad on April 11, 2024, 01:35:00 PM
Not relevant to the play off chase but something to cheer us up. If Wealdstone beat Dorking tonight it will mean the thugs with the plastic pitch are condemned to relegation bearing in mind their inferior goal difference. The National Leagues gain is the regional leagues loss. Our condolences.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Saughall Robin on April 11, 2024, 02:46:03 PM
Got a sneaky feeling Wealdstone may have imploded. Just hope they can win tonight.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: GolfRoader on April 11, 2024, 03:05:38 PM
I don't get this disdain for Dorking, they were pushing and pulling us in both matches but you do what you can to win. It's us that got reds in both games and in all honesty both sides were diving around in the home game. Their manager admitted their man should've gone in the home match and Linney deserved to go as well. Wilson was also completely in the wrong at Dorking and deserved a red. If we can't handle those tactics it's on us.

What happened at the away game reflects poorly on the club and has damaged our reputation. There's nothing wrong with a bit of back and forth but the line was crossed last weekend and I can't help but think that's it's been fuelled in part by this bizarre grudge some of us have manufactured off the back of these games.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Wilmslow Alty on April 11, 2024, 08:41:04 PM
Currently Fylde 0-0 Gateshead at HT. Fylde actually having the better of the chances, although there was the odd spark from Gateshead. Quite similar to the first half at Moss Lane in fact. Will be interesting to see how it pans out in the second half. Bar a moment of magic or a serious injection of effort from one of the sides, it's got nil-nil written all over it.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Wilmslow Alty on April 11, 2024, 08:57:50 PM
Two quick goals for Dorking, early in the second half. Looks like they'll live to fight on.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Wilmslow Alty on April 11, 2024, 09:07:00 PM
Dinanga on in the 54th minute and immediately causing Fylde problems. Still fairly even.

Dorking have conceded. Knife edge stuff.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Wilmslow Alty on April 11, 2024, 09:15:18 PM
Wealdstone 3-2 Dorking now :o
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Saughall Robin on April 11, 2024, 09:16:01 PM
Wealdstone equalise.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: MarpleAlty on April 11, 2024, 09:20:19 PM
I don't get this disdain for Dorking, they were pushing and pulling us in both matches but you do what you can to win. It's us that got reds in both games and in all honesty both sides were diving around in the home game. Their manager admitted their man should've gone in the home match and Linney deserved to go as well. Wilson was also completely in the wrong at Dorking and deserved a red. If we can't handle those tactics it's on us.

What happened at the away game reflects poorly on the club and has damaged our reputation. There's nothing wrong with a bit of back and forth but the line was crossed last weekend and I can't help but think that's it's been fuelled in part by this bizarre grudge some of us have manufactured off the back of these games.

This.

I think it's bizarre.

And we have the cheek to talk about how weirdly obsessed the likes of Oldham are with us.

They employed a bit of gamesmanship with us and it clearly worked in both fixtures.

Let's give it a rest.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Wilmslow Alty on April 11, 2024, 09:21:35 PM
FYLDE SCORE!!!
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Wilmslow Alty on April 11, 2024, 09:24:43 PM
Gateshead failed to clear a corner which fell directly to the foot of Mitchell and rolled in from a yard or two out.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Wilmslow Alty on April 11, 2024, 09:33:05 PM
TWO NIL!
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Wilmslow Alty on April 11, 2024, 09:40:15 PM
UPDATED AFTER TONIGHT'S RESULT: FYLDE 2-0 GATESHEAD

It remains that we will secure a playoff spot if we do as well or better than Aldershot on Saturday. If Aldershot lose, we are in the playoffs. If we win, we are in the playoffs. If Aldershot draw and we draw, we are in the playoffs.

As well as Gateshead dropping points tonight, their goal difference has taken a knock but is still better than ours (+44 vs +42). Their defeat at Fylde means...

To finish in the top three we MUST win our final two games and ALL of the following must happen:

Failing all four of those things happening, we will still finish top five if we win our remaining games and at least TWO of them happen.

If we drop two points in our final games then top three is impossible but we could still finish in the top five if any TWO of these happen:

If we drop three points in our two remaining games then a top five finish would require any TWO of the following:

Simples 8)
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: GolfRoader on April 11, 2024, 09:50:17 PM
I don't get this disdain for Dorking, they were pushing and pulling us in both matches but you do what you can to win. It's us that got reds in both games and in all honesty both sides were diving around in the home game. Their manager admitted their man should've gone in the home match and Linney deserved to go as well. Wilson was also completely in the wrong at Dorking and deserved a red. If we can't handle those tactics it's on us.

What happened at the away game reflects poorly on the club and has damaged our reputation. There's nothing wrong with a bit of back and forth but the line was crossed last weekend and I can't help but think that's it's been fuelled in part by this bizarre grudge some of us have manufactured off the back of these games.

This.

I think it's bizarre.

And we have the cheek to talk about how weirdly obsessed the likes of Oldham are with us.

They employed a bit of gamesmanship with us and it clearly worked in both fixtures.

Let's give it a rest.

It is and as I'm saying that there are a number of Alty fans rubbing it in on their Twitter now they've been relegated. You're all just showing us up as a club.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Alty Bri on April 11, 2024, 10:00:43 PM
Dorking were vile at our place and by the sounds of it not much better at theirs. I've not gloated on twitter but I'm glad we will not be playing them next season. Very glad.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: rorysgrandad on April 11, 2024, 10:16:28 PM
I'll miss Dorking. 🤔
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: MarpleAlty on April 11, 2024, 10:32:50 PM
Such a big day on Saturday.

Halifax v Barnet and Bromley v Solihull.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Red Balloon on April 11, 2024, 10:49:24 PM
We will miss Dorking too.

They had a decent Waitrose on our recent visit the other day. A bit of panache!

Oh well we still have Booths in Hale Barnes....
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Wilmslow Alty on April 11, 2024, 11:24:10 PM
Such a big day on Saturday.

Halifax v Barnet and Bromley v Solihull.

A Barnet win would be tremendous. The Bromley v Solihull game depends on how ambitious we're being. A Bromley win would block a top three finish but improve our chances of top five. Tough one to call - maybe a draw would be best.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: rorysgrandad on April 12, 2024, 04:45:32 AM
Such a big day on Saturday.

Halifax v Barnet and Bromley v Solihull.
How true. We have to win.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: hsmith1 on April 12, 2024, 08:33:16 AM
ebbesfleet are safe now i see
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: CB on April 12, 2024, 08:35:42 AM
Oh well we still have Booths in Hale Barnes....

No longer, it's closed down.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: bigedd on April 12, 2024, 09:05:31 AM
Oh well we still have Booths in Hale Barnes....
Soon to be Asda,s

No longer, it's closed down.
Such a big day on Saturday.

Halifax v Barnet and Bromley v Solihull.

A Barnet win would be tremendous. The Bromley v Solihull game depends on how ambitious we're being. A Bromley win would block a top three finish but improve our chances of top five. Tough one to call - maybe a draw would be best.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Alty Bri on April 12, 2024, 09:29:15 AM
3rd is out; we definitely want Bromley to beat Solihull. A win at Ebbs could make the last round of matches fun, as it could come down to goal difference between us and Gateshead for 4th! Not inconceivable.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: AltyNotFaulty on April 12, 2024, 10:16:19 AM
ebbesfleet are safe now i see

Nope… can be caught by Kiddy and BW as well as others below them.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: MarpleAlty on April 12, 2024, 10:25:10 AM
I think Ebbsfleet are probably realistically safe, but stranger things have certainly happened.

Probably good for us that their form has turned slightly - by all accounts they were poor at Solihull - and maybe the stark realisation they're in trouble might only hit with two games to go.

With regard to Halifax v Barnet and Bromley v Solihull, draws in both fixtures would put things back into our hands (provided we win ours).
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: rorysgrandad on April 13, 2024, 07:43:10 AM
Gateshead v Chesterfield moved at this very late hour from Tuesday to Monday by the league. League statement says it's to protect the integrity of the competition. Chesterfield fans rightly irate as they've made travel plans. What the hell is all this about?
 
 
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Leon on April 13, 2024, 10:26:01 AM
Gateshead v Chesterfield moved at this very late hour from Tuesday to Monday by the league. League statement says it's to protect the integrity of the competition. Chesterfield fans rightly irate as they've made travel plans. What the hell is all this about?
 
 

The only thing I can think of is the league wanted a back-up plan in case any of Gateshead's fixtures is posponed. If their Saturday or Monday games gets postponed, they can tell them to play their remaining fixtures Tuesday and Thursday. If the Wednesday one gets postponed, they can try again the following day.

Although if that is the case, you'd think they'd do the same with Halifax.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: cheshire cat on April 13, 2024, 11:39:00 AM
Hopefully the irate Chesterfield fans can fire up their team.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Wilmslow Alty on April 13, 2024, 06:31:27 PM
UPDATED AFTER TODAY'S RESULTS: WE ARE IN THE PLAYOFFS!

Today's win means we are in the playoffs regardless of what happens in the late kick off at Aldershot (who are currently 0-2 down!) Bromley's win against Solihull means we can finish no higher than 4th but our path to the top 5 is now looking better.

Put simply, if we win next Saturday we are top 5. If we win and Gateshead drop any points between now and Saturday then we will finish 4th.

If we draw on Saturday then we will still finish top 5 if either of these happen. (If both happen we'll be 4th).

If we lose on Saturday then a top five finish would require any TWO of the following (top four if all three happen):

Simples 8)
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: rorysgrandad on April 13, 2024, 08:21:20 PM
We beat Oxford we are still fourth. All those below can sort themselves out. If Halifax or Gateshead make 7th they'd be exhausted opponents at the JDS.
Our points tally is amazing as were the other play off competitors results today. At present we're 12 points ahead of Oldham and 16 Rochdale. Is this really happening?
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: CRT Butty on April 13, 2024, 08:25:05 PM
These are the days my friends.

These are the days!
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Sarf London Alty on April 13, 2024, 09:30:16 PM
I really can’t see a knackered Gateshead side getting 9/9 this week, they will drop points somewhere so IMO as long as we beat Oxford next Saturday then we’ll get 4th & probably Halifax at home a week on Weds. Barnet & Bromley deserve top 3 & now have that in the bag.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Saughall Robin on April 13, 2024, 10:00:53 PM
If we beat Halifax (H), then Bromley (A), then possibly Barnet at Wembley, we utterly will have deserved it (promotion) 😉

Easy-peasy eh? 😂😂
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: MarpleAlty on April 13, 2024, 10:42:57 PM
If we beat Halifax (H), then Bromley (A), then possibly Barnet at Wembley, we utterly will have deserved it (promotion) 😉

Easy-peasy eh? 😂😂

That's certainly what it looks like at the moment - revenge over a knackered Halifax side with no Milli Alli to bail them out will be so sweet.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: One Foot in the Grave on April 14, 2024, 09:23:28 AM
Halifax might not make it - don't rule out Southend quite yet!
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: rorysgrandad on April 14, 2024, 10:02:19 AM
Halifax might not make it - don't rule out Southend quite yet!
Southend different proposition to a knackered Halifax. Without the10 point deduction right up there.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: MarpleAlty on April 14, 2024, 10:09:52 AM
A win should do it for Halifax I reckon, they'll fancy themselves to get it done at 'home' to Ebbsfleet.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Saughall Robin on April 14, 2024, 10:18:31 AM
A win should do it for Halifax I reckon, they'll fancy themselves to get it done at 'home' to Ebbsfleet.
I fancy Ebbsfleet for at least a point actually. 🤔🤞
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Timperley The Best on April 14, 2024, 11:36:17 AM
Halifax might not make it - don't rule out Southend quite yet!


Stranger things have happended in football
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Alty Bri on April 14, 2024, 01:27:13 PM
Oldham 'go' to Fax and they're half-arsed at the best of times - it'll be even less when they finally meet.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Wilmslow Alty on April 16, 2024, 09:53:19 PM
UPDATED AFTER TONIGHT'S RESULTS: WE CAN FINISH NO LOWER THAN 6TH

With Halifax dropping points at 'home' to Ebbsfleet, the lowest we can now finish is 6th. Highest is 4th.

It remains that if we win on Saturday we will finish top 5. If we win and Gateshead drop any points tomorrow or Saturday then we will finish 4th.

If we draw on Saturday then we will still finish top 5 if either of these happen. (If both happen we'll be 4th).

If we lose on Saturday then a top five finish would require either of the following (top four if both happen):

Simples 8)
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Wilmslow Alty on April 16, 2024, 10:02:15 PM

Halifax might not make it - don't rule out Southend quite yet!
Or Oldham or Aldershot  :o

I'm hoping Halifax just squeak over the line. Last thing we need is an in-form team steaming into the playoffs on a sudden run of form. As things stand, we have the best form in the top seven while Halifax are running on fumes. Let's keep it that way!
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Wilmslow Alty on April 17, 2024, 10:04:47 PM
UPDATED AFTER TONIGHT'S GAME: 4TH PLACE IS IN OUR HANDS

With Aldershot taking all three points in a very unconvincing 1-0 win against a ten men Gateshead with no recognised goalkeeper for almost the entire second half, the final playoff spot is still up for grabs. For us, we can finish no lower than 6th. Highest is 4th - and now looking more likely.

It's now the case that if we win on Saturday we will finish 4th.

If we fail to win on Saturday then 5th place will require either of these to happen (4th if both happen):

Simples 8)
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: swindellsworth on April 19, 2024, 07:04:54 PM
Hope Halifax get the point they need . In the play offs if Aldershot can reproduce the form that saw off Stockport and Swindon they can beat anyone .  Sarfend and Heed more dangerous too in my opinion. Don't believe Fax can reach their levels tbh. ( yes i know we need to win too )
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: CRT Butty on April 20, 2024, 05:49:36 PM
Halifax.

At home.

Business to attend to.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: MarpleAlty on April 20, 2024, 06:04:57 PM
Congratulations to Craig Mahon and his Curzon Ashton team, who have secured the last NLN playoff space.

Their reward is an away tie with Chorley.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: Timperley The Best on April 20, 2024, 06:17:43 PM
Congratulations to Craig Mahon and his Curzon Ashton team, who have secured the last NLN playoff space.

Their reward is an away tie with Chorley.

A tough task for them  at Chorley but to make  the play offs and finishing above the likes of Chester and Hereford is some achievement. Sounds like Craig Mahon is a manager with potential .
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: rorysgrandad on April 20, 2024, 06:23:25 PM
Halifax.

At home.

Business to attend to.
Ball and chain for fax fans. 😂
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: MarpleAlty on April 20, 2024, 08:30:24 PM
Congratulations to Craig Mahon and his Curzon Ashton team, who have secured the last NLN playoff space.

Their reward is an away tie with Chorley.

A tough task for them  at Chorley but to make  the play offs and finishing above the likes of Chester and Hereford is some achievement. Sounds like Craig Mahon is a manager with potential .

He has a pretty good CV already, given that his other job is within the coaching setup at Wigan Athletic.
Title: Re: The run in
Post by: rorysgrandad on April 23, 2024, 10:58:06 AM
Halifax.

At home.

Business to attend to.
COME ON YOU MOORS!!