Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[ManagementGuru]

Halifax 44pts GD -7
Weymouth 44 pts GD -23
Alty 40 pts GD -29
-------------------------
Farsley 40 pts GD -33
Vics 37 pts GD -34
Stafford 23 pt GD -54
Droylsden 21 pts GD -68

In the words of the Beegees: Ah, ah, ah, ah Stayin Alive!

[Longman]

I don't really understand this extrapolation thing, can someone explain??

Cheers.

[ManagementGuru]

There are a numbe rof ways of extrapolating results to date to form a view of the whole season.  My method is to seperately extrapolate home and away form.

So specifically looking at Alty's current record:

Our home form this season has seen us take 20 points from 21 games with a goal difference of -14.  Extrapolating that over 23 games gives 21.9 points and a GD of -15.3
Our away form gives us 15 points from 19 games, goal difference -11.  And over 23 games that would be 18.2 points and a goal difference of -13.3

Overall therefore our 46 games would yield 40.1 points and a goal difference of -28.6, which gets rounded to 40 points and a GD of -29.

Incidently, I think this may be the first time this season that our home form has been better than our away form!

[samba]

Really?? Bearing in mind we didn't win away last season till the last couple of months!!

[ManagementGuru]

Sorry Samba - I didn't word that very well.  Up to now, in this season we have picked up more points per game away from home than we have managed at Moss Lane.  Recent home wins against FGR and Stafford, coupled with a couple of away defeats  have now reversed this trend.

[Longman]

There are a numbe rof ways of extrapolating results to date to form a view of the whole season.  My method is to seperately extrapolate home and away form.

So specifically looking at Alty's current record:

Our home form this season has seen us take 20 points from 21 games with a goal difference of -14.  Extrapolating that over 23 games gives 21.9 points and a GD of -15.3
Our away form gives us 15 points from 19 games, goal difference -11.  And over 23 games that would be 18.2 points and a goal difference of -13.3

Overall therefore our 46 games would yield 40.1 points and a goal difference of -28.6, which gets rounded to 40 points and a GD of -29.

Incidently, I think this may be the first time this season that our home form has been better than our away form!

Oh right I see, thanks for explaining.

[Wilmslow Alty]

Based on the equally unscientific method of basing results on the previous home/away fixture this season, the final table would look like this:

Halifax 44
ALTRINCHAM 44
Weymouth 41
------------------------
Farsley 39
Northwich 34
Stafford Rangers 25
Droylsden 18

Of the teams we have played twice this season, the result (win/lose/draw) has been the same both home and away 71% of the time - not a bad predictor then.

The method does fail to account for Northwich's recent upturn in form and Halifax's downturn but it's encouraging that we have already taken points off everyone we are left to play bar Ebbsfleet. Droylsden, on the other hand, have only taken two points from the 11 teams they have left!

Here's a list of everyone's remaining fixtures, with the predicted result (in points) based on the previous fixture between the two clubs this season:

ALTRINCHAM Torquay 1 Kidderminster 3 Burton Albion 1 Salisbury City 1 Ebbsfleet United 0 Weymouth 3	WEYMOUTH Farsley Celtic 1 Burton Albion 0 Oxford Utd 0 Grays Athletic 0 Crawley Town 0 Droylsden 3 Kidderminster 1 Aldershot 0 Altrincham 0	HALIFAX Exeter 0 Forest Green 0 Kidderminster 0 Ebbsfleet United 0 Grays Athletic 1 Burton Albion 1 Aldershot 3 Crawley Town 3 Stevenage 3	FARSLEY Weymouth 1 Torquay    0 Droylsden 3 Oxford Utd 0 Ebbsfleet United 1 Forest Green 1 York 0 Grays Athletic 0
NORTHWICH    Oxford Utd 3 Histon 0 Stafford Rangers 0  Forest Green 0 Exeter 1 Grays Athletic 0 Stevenage 0 Cambridge Utd 0	STAFFORD Aldershot 0 Grays Athletic 0    Northwich 3 York 1 Cambridge Utd 0    Crawley Town 1 Exeter 0 Droylsden 1	DROYLSDEN Aldershot 0 Rushden & D'monds 0 Torquay 0 Exeter 0 Cambridge Utd 0 Farsley Celtic 0 Ebbsfleet United 0 Weymouth 0 Histon 0 Woking 1 Stafford Rangers 1

[Ballers]

That's good extrapolating, a method I have used but not with regards to other teams fixtures.

That would mean us taking 9 points from 6 games, something we have only done once this season 

Also, and this is a double  , going by those figures the table going into the last game would be

Alty 41 (and presumably a better goal difference looking at the remaining 'results')
Muff 41
---------
Farsely 39

Entirely possible that neither us or Muff could afford to draw that match eek!

[Wilmslow Alty]

Based on probable goal difference - a draw would be good enough for us and Weymouth.

I'm hoping Halifax stay up (though not at the expense of us!) I'd hate for people to say we stayed up on a 'technicality' again

[Saughall Robin]

  I'd hate for people to say we stayed up on a 'technicality' again

Must disagree. I'd absolutely love it.

PS: I'd prefer to do it the conventional way though i.e. by having more points at the end of the season! 

[DarrenH]

Agreed.
Would prefer to do it on our own merits but would accept either way !!