This week, I'll start with the local situation before getting into the latest stats.
A (formerly) local publication has decided to betray the people of the region, publishing a document suggesting that the hospitals of the "Greater Manchester" region were set to run out of critical care beds, with 82% being used by Friday. It turns out that at the end of October last year (according to the NHS) 83.6% were being used. Furthermore, "cases in Manchester peaked on the 30th of September, with the seven day average having subsequently fallen 20% (although they have apparently risen slightly across the GM region). The sellouts at this publication have shamefully put pressure on local authorities to agree to an increased period of increased restrictions just when "cases" appear to be peaking.
On to the latest weekly figures, and it is now clear that my prediction of 500 deaths per week has been exceeded by some margin. I was of course working on the assumption that we were headed for (as the authorities told us) where France was (about 300 cv deaths/week at the time), and that this "Autumn ripple" would see far fewer deaths than in April, and indeed, arguments can still be made to a degree for both these assumptions. This prediction was in contrast to the well publicised prediction of the authorities of 200 deaths/day by November. My current working theory is that UK deaths will peak towards the end of this week. Further substantial increases this week (and based on the trends of previous weeks, I am assuming an increase of about 30% (tallying in fact with what we have seen for the total so far this week) would actually see the authorities with all their expertise closer than my prediction! If increases continue next week, the authorities may actually be right - although if deaths continue to increase after that, we would probably both have underestimated the actual rate.
I should provide the basis for my assumption that deaths will peak this week. Firstly, global deaths have remained stable in the seven weeks I've been tracking them, suggesting that deaths get to a certain level and fall back, rather than continuing to increase. Secondly, a peak this week would reflect the period of increasing deaths in March and April. Third, all the places outside the UK I've been tracking have seen decreases in recent weeks (with the exception of lockdown nutters Belgium).
It might be useful to give a bit of context for these predictions by considering other predictions that have been made. Firstly, and most notoriously, professor pantsdown telling us that we faced up to half a million deaths without any intervention - even though no one was proposing doing nothing. Of course, infections had already peaked by March the 23rd, so I assume that even with more limited, or indeed no intervention, it would have been wrong. I assume the closest to doing nothing was Belarus, and I'm pretty sure they haven't seen deaths anywhere near that rate, even if the official figures for that country do turn out to be understated. Then there's of course the 200 deaths per day prediction which will either be proved right or wrong in the next couple of weeks, but could still be an overestimate - but not as much as the imperial college one of course! We were previously told that we were headed for where France is headed. Our death rate has recently been slightly higher than France (but still in the ball park), and, as France has seen decreases in deaths in some recent weeks, if we are really headed where France is, we can reasonably expect the same soon. The only prediction I can recall re. cv (though there are probably others) was a prediction of a vaccine for February or March (I think). It was claimed "today" that there would be no vaccine until Spring, so this could mean more or less correct, we will see - although it may be some time after a vaccine first becomes available before it changes much, and of course it may be of limited effects - if it was that easy, other bugs that come around every year would have been dealt with.
And finally, a solution I could have suggested months ago and which it appears the authorities are finally looking into - that it is probably quite a good idea to take plenty of vitamin D3. Seems they're more interested in pushing vaccines and drugs for their mates in big pharma, at the cost of thousands of lives - or am I being too cynical?
Probably not - my lockdown notes from 16th April referring to those daily tv briefings read - " '5 tests' - heard that somewhere before! 'The way out of this is vaccines and...drugs'. no [orthomolecular] nutritional therapy then - disgrace!" Strewth, if it had been left to them, sailors would still be getting scurvy today!
On to this weeks figures, and it's a bit of a mixed bag, but I'll start with a summary of what good news there is. Global cv deaths were down for a second week in a row, and Brazil was down to its lowest deaths in the seven weeks I've been following it.
I'll start with the global figures then. There were 37,934 cv deaths reported globally in the last 7 days, or 5,419/day,equivalent to 47/day in the UK Previous weeks' totals, working back from last week are as follows: 38,915; 39,207; 37,568; 37,148; 40,300; 37,038. So no clear downward trend, as the virus continues to work its way through the global population, but also no sign of an exponential rise. Incidentally, extrapolated to the UK population, this per centage of daily deaths would equate to 17,167 in a year, hardly in the territory of panic measures.
On to the next place I mentioned, Brazil, which saw 3,417 deaths last week, equivalent to 156/day in the UK. Previous weeks - 4,136; 4,576; 5,244; 5,258; 5,008; 5,759. So still high, but appears to be edging down, and still a lower overall death rate than lockdown fanatics Peru of course!
Peru themselves reported 479 deaths last week, equivalent to 141/day in the UK.. Previous weeks - 558; 403; 893; 776; 906; 1,080. So a significant drop from their peak, but current weekly death rate still only marginally lower than Brazil.
Moving on to the UK before comparing us to other European countries. Sunday to Saturday, there were 841 deaths reported (or 141/day), meaning there needs to be an increase of 110 this week (or 12%) for the authorities' prediction of 200 deaths per day to beat my own prediction of 500 in a week (or 71/day), or 559 for their prediction to be matched.
Our friends in Sweden obviously saw an increase on their minus one deaths last week, to 24 this week, equivalent to 23/day in the UK. Before last week, the figures were - 15, 15, 19, 11, 14. So this week was 5 above the highest since Istarted tracking them, not enough to draw too many conclusions, and may indeed be related to the low number reported the week before (-1), but nonetheless, something to keep an eye on.
Bad news from France as well, which reported747 deaths last week, equivalent to 111/day in the UK. Not a huge increase from their Autumn peak, but nonetheless well up from the week before. Previous weeks figures - 500, 503, 442, 675, 304, 95. So it remains to be seen how quickly numbers can come down after levelling off...
Spain reported 846 deaths, marginally up from the previous week, and equivalent to 176/day in the UK. Previous weeks - 843, 834, 737. So again looking more like a levelling off than a peak and trough.
Finally, lockdown idiots Belgium, who reported 217 deaths last week, continuing their upward trend, and equivalent to 182/day in the UK. Previous weeks' totals - 131, 70, 30.
So it remains the case that none of the European countries I have been tracking have seen an Autumn death equivalent to over 200 in the UK, and I remain hopeful that we can peak well below this level, though obviously 200/day (or more) can't be completely ruled out. I think April levels can though.
I should also say that I suspect that coming in and out of lockdowns is similar (and approximately equivalent) to yoyo dieting - ie you gain weight. Trying to suppress a virus, it would appear, simply prolongs things, and means that people do not have a chance to build up their immune systems so much as a result of decreased contact with germs, and are thus less well equipped to fight off infections when restrictions are eased. And with herd immunity delayed and the lower risk Summer months wasted when tis might have been achieved with decfreased risk, it seems that lockdown obsessed countries may see higher deaths overall. Why else are there such high deaths in Belgium and Peru? Answers on a post card.
And New Zealand and China can't close their borders to the rest of the world forever can they? They will surely have to bite the bullet sooner or later.